The Sun is the Biggest Player in Climate Change
One will not find one scientist to dispute the reduced activity that the sun. All the global warming crowd can do is either ignore the sun completely or pretend the sun does not have an impact in the weather on earth, which wouldn’t be true at all. The Sun is the source of most of the energy that drives the biological and physical processes in the world around us.
The rate of energy coming from the Sun changes slightly day to day. Over many millennia the Earth-Sun orbital relationship can change the geographical distribution of the sun’s energy over the Earth’s surface. Changes in solar output obviously affects our climate—both directly, by changing the rate of solar heating of the Earth and atmosphere, and indirectly, by changing cloud forming processes.
Small fluctuations in solar activity have a large influence on climate. Subtle connections between the 11-year solar cycle, the stratosphere, and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research appearing in the journal Science. The study can help scientists get an edge on eventually predicting the intensity of certain climate phenomena, such as the Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall, years in advance,” writes Science Daily.
“Is it possible that everything we do is dwarfed by the moods of the star that gives life to the world? The Sun is incomparably vaster and more powerful than any work of man. We are forged from a few clods of solar dust. The Sun powers every plant and form of life, and one day the Sun will turn into a red giant and engulf us all. Then it will burn out. Then it will get very nippy indeed,” wrote The Daily Telegraph.
Dr. R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre of Canada’s Carleton University, says: “I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet.”
Diminished solar activity is the main reason we are facing such dangerous cold. Solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Though intensified volcanic activity is adding to the faster than expected cooling, it is hard to measure how dozens of volcanic explosions are contributing. However, we can see what is happening on the sun. “The Sun is flat lining,” says spaceweather.com. “For the 6th day in a row, solar activity remains very low. No sunspots are flaring, and the sun’s X-ray output has flatlined.”
Paul Dorian, meteorologist with Vencore Weather reports on present solar conditions. “The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky – has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. For the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flat lined in recent days (plot below courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center). Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and today the sun is virtually spotless despite the fact that we are still in what is considered to be its solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.”
The German Herald reported on March 31, 2013, “German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years. It was May of 2013 that the headlines in Forbes Magazine read, “To the Horror of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here.” Scientists, the ones who still have their wits about them, have known for as long as 19 years that the world has been cooling and have predicted exactly where we now are.
Credit/SILSO data, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
Solar Radio Emissions
Another indicator of the level of solar activity is the flux of radio emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz frequency). This flux has been measured daily since 1947. It is an important indicator of solar activity because it tends to follow the changes in the solar ultraviolet that influence the Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Radio emissions have been shown to follow the sunspot number quite closely thus this chart is just one more proof of the sun’s diminished heat giving rays that is giving rise to global cooling. Warming just cannot happen without the full cooperation of the sun.
On Sept. 23, 2008, in a briefing at NASA headquarters, solar physicists announced that the solar wind is losing power. "The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s," says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. "This is the weakest it’s been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago."
Curiously, the speed of the million-mph solar wind hasn’t decreased much—only 3%. The change in pressure comes mainly from reductions in temperature and density. The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.
‘Cycle 25,’ the next 11-year activity phase, will be one of the weakest in centuries, NASA predicts—a decrease that will mean fewer flares and more fleece sweaters.
In 2012 Joe Bastardi, one of the more prominent weathermen, was alarmed after the dramatic turnaround in weather in August of that year. He said that it had to be “One of the greatest turnarounds in temperatures in U.S. history. The 16-day means of over 5° C below normal seem too cold to me,” he said. “Could be the coldest two-week period in U.S. history in August for the plains.”
Dalton comparison. Credit/SILSO data, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels
This graph by the Royal Observatory of Belgium plots the three cycles leading into the Dalton Minimum (in blue), overlaid with the most recent three cycles (in red). The display is current through September 2014. Both sets of three cycles have shared similarities. The entire professional discussion in solar scientist circles is not about warming but about how cold it will get and for how long. Presently in 2118 sunspot activity is crashing down to a minimum number of sunspot activity.
NASA solar physicist David Hathaway says "if the sun remains in its sleepy state, we could see a replay of the Dalton Minimum (a period of very low solar activity when sunspots numbers peaked at only 50), which occurred two centuries ago. During the Dalton Minimum (1790 – 1830), global temperatures plummeted, resulting in the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816. The abnormally cold weather destroyed crops in northern Europe, the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Historian John D. Post called it "the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world.”
The sun’s current space-weather cycle is the most anemic in 100 years, scientists say. Our star is now at "solar maximum," the peak phase of its 11-year activity cycle. But this solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 24, conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s, researchers said. "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. So, we will learn something," Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University told reporters here today (Dec. 11) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
This is what the sun currently looks like. If you notice, the sunis completely free of sunspots. If there were sunspots, you would see some small dark circles forming on the surface of the sun.
Dr. Willie Soon, an Astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics says that, “The Sun is just slightly dimmer and has been for about the last 18 months because there are very few sunspots. Sunspots are giant islands of magnetism on the Sun and the appearance of sunspots normally runs in 11-year cycles. When sunspots are abundant during the cycle, it is called the “solar maximum” and when there are few sunspots, it is considered to be the “solar minimum.” Right now, we are in the deepest solar minimum of the entire Space Age. In fact, this is the quietest (fewest sunspots) Sun we have had in almost a century. And the lack of sunspots have a link to our climate. When you have a lot of sunspots, there is a lot more light energy coming from the Sun and that tends to warm the Earth. When the Sun produces fewer sunspots, it essentially gives up less energy to the Earth’s climate system. And less energy means a cooler planet.”
According to NOAA and NASA, the sunspot cycle hit an unusually deep bottom from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost NO sunspots, a very unusual situation that had not happened for almost a century. Due to the weak solar activity, galactic cosmic rays were at record levels. Solar Maximum: The sun’s record-breaking sleep ended in 2010. In 2011, sunspot counts jumped up. However, they remained low with a small peak in February of 2012. Throughout 2013, the sun was relatively quiet.
We are now facing an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades. Due to the strong correlation of historical evidence, we can conclude that we are sitting right on the cusp of another mini ice age.
Sami K. Solanki of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research believed ahead of the rest that the Sun would leave its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century. He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years. Solanki holds that a repeat of the Dalton Minimum is most likely, and that the earth is in for an unusually deep and long solar minimum.
SSRC Director John Casey said,” There can no longer be any doubt that the Sun has entered an historic period of dramatically reduced activity which will bring us many long years of deep cold weather. This was predicted by me and a few other scientists around the globe but of course we were not taken seriously because of the politics of global warming and the refusal of many media outlets to print or telecast alternatives to the now discredited man made global warming concept. According to national and international sources that monitor the Sun, what is happening on and in the Sun is nothing short of record setting, astounding, and at the same time worrisome. The solar wind is at its lowest level in fifty years. The surface movement on the Sun has slowed to record rates and according to NASA’s previous announcements is ‘off the bottom of the charts.’ Most telling is the current prolonged lack of sunspots between the normal 11 year solar cycles 23 and 24 which is about to set a one hundred year record for time without sunspots. NASA also has long since forecast that cycle 25 will be ‘one of the weakest in centuries.” All of these events in combination leave little doubt that a ‘solar hibernation’ lasting several decades delivering the coldest weather in over two centuries has in fact arrived.”
“The global warming of the past decades was caused by the Sun. It is now over. It will not return based upon the SSRC’s research, for at least thirty years. It will then return only because the Sun’s repeating cycles of activity are scheduled to pick up again at that time. We should not waste another minute, another penny in controlling something that simply does not exist, namely man-made climate change and global warming. It is essential for the welfare of all Americans if not the world, that in light of these new and startling changes in the Earth’s temperature and the profound changes in the Sun, that the next administration initiate a top-down review and redirection of climate change policy as soon as President Obama takes office,” concluded Casey.
By the standard of spotless days, the ongoing solar minimum is the deepest in a century, NASA reports. In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year’s 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%): The lack of sunspots in 2008, made it a century-level year in terms of solar quiet. Remarkably, sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. Spotless Days so far in 2009 is 258 days already with the current stretch of spotless days being 15.
Dr. David Evans said, “If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us. The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004. Here is another graph of solar radiation since 1610, when sunspots were first recorded. The brown line is the solar radiation, and it peaks every 11 years or so because of the sunspot cycle. We put an 11-year smoother through it to give us the red line, which shows the trends in solar radiation.”
This is an official graph and the trend is cooler
The BBC early in 2014 put out a video warning of rapid deflation of solar activity. The video predicts the next ice age starting in forty years. Leonard Nimoy broadcast on television in May of 1978 "The Coming Ice Age," a show where all manner of experts and climate scientists were trotted out to warn the world of the run-away global cooling that was just around the corner.
Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics, from the University of Reading, through an analysis of ice-cores, which hold a long-term record of solar activity, suggests the decline in activity on the sun is the fastest that has been seen in 10,000 years. "It’s an unusually rapid decline," explains Prof Lockwood.
“The recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end,” says this study on nature.com. The study, published in 2015, looked at past variations of solar activity. In 2010, the study found, scientists estimated a mere 8% chance of a return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions within the next 40 years. However, “the decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in 9,300 years.”
The Sun is the Mother when it comes to Climate. “Something is up with the sun,” writes the Wall Street Journal in 2013. “Scientists say that solar activity is stranger than in a century or more, with the sun producing barely half the number of sunspots as expected and its magnetic poles oddly out of sync. Based on historical records, astronomers say the sun this fall ought to be nearing the explosive climax of its approximate 11-year cycle of activity—the so-called solar maximum. But this peak is "a total punk," said Jonathan Cirtain, who works at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as project scientist for the Japanese satellite Hinode, which maps solar magnetic fields.
NASA solar physicist David Hathaway says “if the sun remains in its sleepy state, we could see a replay of the Dalton Minimum (a period of very low solar activity when sunspots numbers peaked at only 50), which occurred two centuries ago. During the Dalton Minimum (1790 – 1830), global temperatures plummeted, resulting in the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816. The abnormally cold weather destroyed crops in northern Europe, the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Historian John D. Post called it “the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world.”
"I’ve been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I’ve never seen anything quite like this," says Dr. Richard Harrison, head of space physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire. "If you want to go back to see when the Sun was this inactive… you’ve got to go back about 100 years," he says.
Dr. David Evans, an electrical engineer and mathematician, who earned six university degrees over ten years, including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering said, “If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us. The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004.” There is a delay — probably of around 11 years — between changes in sunlight and temperatures on Earth, says Evans.
The decline in the energy output of the sun is extremely rapid at this point. Satellite and NASA datasets show that rapid cooling is underway. The cooling we are seeing in the troposphere really is spectacular. What we are experiencing is the second largest cooling in 37+ years of satellite records.
We have had plenty of warnings through the last 10 years, which politicians have deliberately ignored. Scientists warn that the Earth is just 15 years away from experiencing a “mini ice age” — something that has not happened in 300 years. Solar scientists say that the latest model shows the Sun’s magnetic waves will become offset in Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. Then, in Cycle 26, solar activity will fall by 60 per cent.
Professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University is suggesting there could be a 35-year period of low solar activity that could usher in an “ice age.” Zharkova and her team of researchers released a study on sunspot modeling, finding that solar activity could fall to levels not seen since the so-called “Little Ice Age” of the 1600s. She is just one of many scientists who have warned us but presidents and Popes have just chosen to ignore them.
For years on NASA’s official site we read on May 10, 2006: The Sun’s Great Conveyor Belt slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. “It’s off the bottom of the charts,” he said. “This has important repercussions for future solar activity.” This page has recently disappeared from NASA’s site.
The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit. “Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace,” says Hathaway. “That’s how it has been since the late 19th century.” In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. “We’ve never seen speeds so low.”
According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity 20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. “The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries,” says Hathaway. Here we are at a peak period in Solar Cycle 24 and the sun is quiet but it’s going to get a lot quieter and a lot colder.
Interestingly Safe Haven, a financial site published the following on solar activity:
January’s Sunspot count came in at 6.7, which was down from December’s 8.2. The following chart includes the latest post and covers Solar Cycle 24. The high was 145 in February 2014, which compares to the high of 238 in September 2003.
With the decline in solar activity, the number of Spotless days continues to grow. It’s the way it works. So far, this year there has been 17 days, or 52% for the year. In all of 2017, the number was 104 days or 28% and the year before it was 32 days or 9%. For 2015 the count was zero, as it essentially was back to 2010.
‘Curious’ Why The Sun Has Been So Dim Lately. Mish Michaels Reporting. Boston (WBZ)